2008 P1 Registration Exercise for 2009 In-Take
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ChiefKiasu:
And for the matter, schools such as Bukit Panjang, Chongzheng, Woodgrove and Compassvale are very likely to require balloting <1km in Phase 2C. The demand for these schools is very high this year.
actually the take up rate for Phase 1 for BPPS is the same as last year. but the difference is that last year's vacancy is 360 while this year is 300. -
Seem like ZhangDe & Gan Eng Seng had a god take up rate as compare to Blangah Rise Pri
Maybe would then know the final figure after Phase 2B. -
Interesting letter to ST forum concerning PR's registration for P1.Should PR be accorded the same priority when it comes to P1's registration?
http://www.straitstimes.com/ST%2BForum/Story/STIStory_255977.html
July 9, 2008\t
Give PRs a fair chance during P1 registration
I READ with interest last Wednesday's letter by Mr Chong Kim Hwa, 'Primary 1 registration: Separate citizens, PRs'.
I agree with the idea of granting a place to children who already have siblings in the school. But I wish to counter other points made by Mr Chong.
First, his claim that prioritisation of citizens over non-citizens is fair and impartial. The reason he gave is that the number of new permanent residents is higher than the number of births.
The number of PRs granted was 50,000, whereas the number of births was around 40,000. The fact that the Government is willing to grant foreign talent PR implies that there are sufficient places in Singapore schools for children of PRs and citizens.
Second, Mr Chong suggested balloting if there are insufficient places after citizens are allocated theirs. He assumed that there will always be sufficient places for citizens and no balloting is required. Is this assumption backed by data? What happens in the event that balloting is required for citizens?
Third, the Government is encouraging foreign talent to settle in Singapore and contribute to the economy. A major consideration for foreign talent who are considering Singapore is the guarantee of places for their children in our world-class schools.
Thus, the process Mr Chong proposed runs contrary to the strategy and effort of the Government to attract foreign talent. In the long run, this will cause them to seek other countries that will welcome them as much as our Government does.
I would like to end by posing a question to Mr Chong.
How would you feel if you migrated to another country, contributed to the economy of your adopted country but your children were given lowest priority in school enrolment? -
I’m trying to understand MOE’s statistics, especially in phase 2C. Does the number of applicants shown includes all people applying or only those within 1 and 2 km? Do people who live beyond 2km even bother applying in this phase?
I applied to be a parent volunteer at Nan Hua but was turned down. I live within 1km of the school but don’t know what the chances are in phase 2C, because MOE does not break down the statistics into those who live within 1km, those who live between 1km and 2km, and those who live outside 2km.
Anyone knows? -
From my understanding, the no. of applicants in MOE stats reflects the total no. of registrants under the 2C phase for the school, including all distances.
What you should do is call the school and request for a breakdown. That’s what I did with the school of my choice and the adminstrator was kind enough to provide me with the no. of applicants that fell within 1km & 1-2km.
I understand that for some schools where the total no. of applicants who falls under the 1km + 1-2Km far exceeds the no. of spaces available, applicants who are outside of 2km are strongly encouraged not to apply as they would not stand a chance in the balloting. And in schools like Nanyang and Ai Tong, registration for those who were not within 1km proximity of school was not accepted as it was announced upfront that balloting will only be conducted for those who live within 1km.
In year 2006 & 2007, balloting was conducted in Nan Hua only for those who lived within 1km of school. Thus, it is most likely that the number reflected should be that of the no. of applicants who are staying within 1km of the school as those who do not fall into that category would have withdrawn their registration and applied in another school where they at least stood a chance of getting in. But as I’d mentioned, you should definitely call up the school to get the more details. -
Hi Red_Ryder
I am also staying within 1km of Nanhua and I am really in a dilemma whether to try for the balloting because I feel that this year chances is lesser than that of last year. It’s only Phase 2A2 and more than half the places has been taken.
I am formerly from Clementi Primary, I am not sure if I should go ahead and register under Phase 2A2 or try for Nanhua at Phase 2C.
I was also rejected to be a Parent Volunteer at Nanhua.
If I try for Nanhua and unable to get in after the ballot, will have to register in Pei Tong already because by then Clementi Primary will all be taken. -
dilemma:
My daughter will be registering in 2009, so I still have one year to plan. Right now trying to decide between Henry Park or NanHua. Both I tried to volunteer and got turned down. If Henry Park is easier to get in, then I'll move to my parent's place in Ghim Moh and register from there.Hi Red_Ryder
I am also staying within 1km of Nanhua and I am really in a dilemma whether to try for the balloting because I feel that this year chances is lesser than that of last year. It's only Phase 2A2 and more than half the places has been taken.
I am formerly from Clementi Primary, I am not sure if I should go ahead and register under Phase 2A2 or try for Nanhua at Phase 2C.
I was also rejected to be a Parent Volunteer at Nanhua.
If I try for Nanhua and unable to get in after the ballot, will have to register in Pei Tong already because by then Clementi Primary will all be taken.
But right now really have no idea what the chances are for people living within 1 km of both schools.
How is Pei Tong compared to Clementi Primary? -
Hi Red_ryder
Maybe you will have better chance next year as I understand that the birth rate in year of Goat is so much lesser than that of Horse. Henry Park is also a good school in this region.
Pei Tong has rebuilt the whole building so it must have the best facilities. Clementi Pri has two students scoring 275 and above last year. -
red_ryder
You can safely take the no. of applicants shown on MOE web (ie for those balloting within 1km) to be the actual no. of applicants who are actually staying within 1km. Those 1-2km and outside 2km would be told to withdraw after end of first day when the sch have compiled the no. of within 1km that have exceeded the no. of vacancies.
My colleague has this experience with Chongfu. My son’s nanny also had this same experience with De La Salle 2 yrs ago. To re-confirm, I called up De La Salle (I am due to register this end July) and was told the no. of applicants at 2C is actually all within 1km.
As someone put it, don’t know whether it is good or bad to be staying near good sch. So near, yet may not get ballot in. However, my colleague also justify that since need to ballot, don’t waste the chance. But must have back up plan. This back up plan must not have risk of balloting. -
dilemma:
I doubt that low birth-rate means easier to get into good school. If the cohort is small that year, MOE will just scale down the vacancies proportionally. Otherwise a lot of the less popular schools will be left empty right? Anyway, thanks for the info!Hi Red_ryder
Maybe you will have better chance next year as I understand that the birth rate in year of Goat is so much lesser than that of Horse. Henry Park is also a good school in this region.
Pei Tong has rebuilt the whole building so it must have the best facilities. Clementi Pri has two students scoring 275 and above last year. -
red_ryder:
Just a note - if you are thinking about Phase 2C in Henry Park, they require balloting for those residing within 1km. Registration using grandparents address will be categorised as registration within 1-2km regardless if the address is within 1km.If Henry Park is easier to get in, then I'll move to my parent's place in Ghim Moh and register from there.
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tianzhu
My views against Mr Chong & the writer:
1) no. of PRs being 50K is greater than our births of 40K: I don’t think the 50K PRs’ children are of the same age.
2) The govt treat all our sch (including neighbourhoods) as world class. So indeed there are sufficient places for all children of foreign talent.
3) The writer must be a foreign talent or PR. If one is able to migrate, that person must have lots of money. Usually such people would go to international sch.
If a (reputable) sch can expand no. of vacancies to cater to dragon babies, I wonder why they have to cut enrolment when no. of births reduces. They can jolly well take everyone in till their limit of 390 places. This would definitely reduce the level of stress. Of course, if MOE were to allow this, this would mean labelling sch as good vs not so good as they are trying to abolish the ranking. No matter what, we already know which are the prestigous sch.
I was not aware that PRs are given same priority as critizens. Just like there are different subsidy for different income levels, varied housing rules for first timers, live near parents, upgraders; perhaps for PRs to enjoy same or almost same priority is that they must be 10 yrs and not newly converted PR. Now there isn’t any statistics to show new PRs taking a huge portion of successful registrations. -
caroline3sg:
A few years down the road, you'll get more PRs vying for the already squeezed places available, especially in the popular schools. At least for current year registration, they may not be applying in phase 2A, but they can register in phase 2B. E.g. my colleague, both husband & wife are PRs, kid is also PR, they register in De La Salle under phase 2B, using church affiliation (they are catholics), and I am sure they are not the only ones.tianzhu
My views against Mr Chong & the writer:
1) no. of PRs being 50K is greater than our births of 40K: I don't think the 50K PRs' children are of the same age.
2) The govt treat all our sch (including neighbourhoods) as world class. So indeed there are sufficient places for all children of foreign talent.
3) The writer must be a foreign talent or PR. If one is able to migrate, that person must have lots of money. Usually such people would go to international sch.
If a (reputable) sch can expand no. of vacancies to cater to dragon babies, I wonder why they have to cut enrolment when no. of births reduces. They can jolly well take everyone in till their limit of 390 places. This would definitely reduce the level of stress. Of course, if MOE were to allow this, this would mean labelling sch as good vs not so good as they are trying to abolish the ranking. No matter what, we already know which are the prestigous sch.
I was not aware that PRs are given same priority as critizens. Just like there are different subsidy for different income levels, varied housing rules for first timers, live near parents, upgraders; perhaps for PRs to enjoy same or almost same priority is that they must be 10 yrs and not newly converted PR. Now there isn't any statistics to show new PRs taking a huge portion of successful registrations.
I am neutral on my take on whether or not to give priority to Singaporeans, just citing an example to show the reality. -
Complete Phase 2A results are in. Here are the updated predictions for Phase 2B:
Phase 2B
Likely less than 1km ballot situations
- CHIJ St Nicholas (quite definite now)
- Ai Tong (quite definite now)
- St Hilda's (risk increased)
- Catholic High (no change)
Possible 1-2km ballot situations
- Tao Nan (risk increased for less than 1km balloting)
- CHIJ Toa Payoh (risk increased for less than 1km balloting)
- Nanyang (no change)
- Holy Innocents (risk upgraded)
Possible greater than 2km balloting
- ACS Primary (risk increased)
- Nan Hua (risk increased)
- Henry Park (risk upgraded)
- Bukit Panjang (risk upgraded)
- Rivervale (risk upgraded)
- Maha Bodhi (risk upgraded)
- Chongzheng (risk upgraded)
- Rosyth (risk upgraded)
- Tao Nan (risk upgraded)
- Fairfield Methodish (risk upgraded)
- Methodist Girls School (no change)
- Chongfu (risk increased)
- St Anthony's (risk increased)
- Northland (risk increased)
- St Joseph (no change)
- Kong Hwa (no change)
- ACS Junior (no change)
- Nan Chiau (risk decreased - may not ballot in Phase 2B)
- De La Salle (risk decreased - may not ballot in Phase 2B)
- Pei Chun (no change - may not ballot in Phase 2B)
- Pei Hwa (no change - may not ballot in Phase 2B) -
CT:
Hi CT, your situation looks likely to be :Can anyone tell me the chances for balloting in phase 2C for
1. Nan Hua
2. Fairfield Methodist
3. Henry Park :?:
Nan Hua
- Take up rate by Phase 2A is 20% higher than last year
- Phase 2B balloting probable for greater than 2km
- Phase 2C balloting (quite definite) less than 1km
Fairfield Methodist
- Take up rate by Phase 2A is 6% higher than last year
- Phase 2B balloting possible for greater than 2km
- Phase 2C balloting (quite definite) less than 1km
Henry Park
- Take up rate by Phase 2A is 1% higher than last year
- Phase 2B balloting possible for greater than 2km
- Phase 2C balloting (quite definite) less than 1km -
We just discovered a fundamental error in our assumptions in our data we got from the 2007 Primary 1 registration exercise. We had assumed that “Registered” means “successful registration”, when in fact it means “Hopeful Applicants”. That led to an erroneous interpretation of the results into “schools will increase their in-take to cater to demand”. We have recomputed numbers and verified it against this year’s data, and found that schools will pretty much stick to the vacancies they publish at the beginning of the exercise, and the maximum variation we have found is an increase of 2 places in a school last year.
Fortunately, it didn’t change our rating of the schools very much in terms of take-up rates or balloting risks. The good news is that with the new assumption, we are able to really estimate the popularity of the schools based on actual applicants, and not just successful registrants.
We apologize for the confusion, and categorically state that neither the school nor MOE would do much to increase the class size or number of classes even if the demand is very high.
We have updated all the statistics including the latest 2008 Phase 2B results. -
Complete Phase 2B results are in.
Phase 2B confirmed balloting or cut-off
- CHIJ St Nicholas (180%!)
- St Hilda's (176%)
- St Joseph's (160%)
- Tao Nan (159%)
- Methodist Girls (145%)
- CHIJ Toa Payoh (139%)
- Holy Innocent's (139%)
- ACS Junior (134%)
- Ai Tong (134%)
- Catholic High (130%)
- Nan Hua (130%)
- Nan Chiau (126%)
- Temasek (124%)
- De La Salle (119%)
- ACS Primary (117%)
- Chongfu (115%)
- Pei Hwa (110%)
- Red Swastika (102%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- CHIJ (Katong) (101%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- Maha Bodhi (100%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
No balloting in Phase 2B
* Nanyang (no change)
* Henry Park (risk upgraded)
* Bukit Panjang (risk upgraded)
* Rivervale (risk upgraded)
* Chongzheng (risk upgraded)
* Rosyth (risk upgraded)
* Fairfield Methodish (risk upgraded)
* St Anthony's (risk increased)
* Northland (risk increased)
* Pei Chun (no change - may not ballot in Phase 2B) -
ChiefKiasu:
Hi Chief Kiasu,Complete Phase 2B results are in.
Phase 2B confirmed balloting or cut-off
- CHIJ St Nicholas (180%!)
- St Hilda's (176%)
- St Joseph's (160%)
- Tao Nan (159%)
- Methodist Girls (145%)
- CHIJ Toa Payoh (139%)
- Holy Innocent's (139%)
- ACS Junior (134%)
- Ai Tong (134%)
- Catholic High (130%)
- Nan Hua (130%)
- Nan Chiau (126%)
- Temasek (124%)
- De La Salle (119%)
- ACS Primary (117%)
- Chongfu (115%)
- Pei Hwa (110%)
- Red Swastika (102%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- CHIJ (Katong) (101%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- Maha Bodhi (100%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
No balloting in Phase 2B
* Nanyang (no change)
* Henry Park (risk upgraded)
* Bukit Panjang (risk upgraded)
* Rivervale (risk upgraded)
* Chongzheng (risk upgraded)
* Rosyth (risk upgraded)
* Fairfield Methodish (risk upgraded)
* St Anthony's (risk increased)
* Northland (risk increased)
* Pei Chun (no change - may not ballot in Phase 2B)
How about Radin Mas & River Valley? Possible 50% chance of balloting? -
titank:
titank, I assume you are referring to Phase 2C?Hi Chief Kiasu,
How about Radin Mas & River Valley? Possible 50% chance of balloting?
Radin Mas no balloting in Phase 2B. The applications were only 29% of the available places. However, since the average TUR is 58%, there is a high chance of balloting in Phase 2C.
The same goes for River Valley. No balloting in Phase 2B since applications are only 53%. But the average TUR is 66%, so again chances are very high for balloting in Phase 2C. -
http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/content/singapore-primary-1-registration-school-balloting-history of the final day in Phase 2C balloting. Notice how RGS shot up by 106% (82 new applicants) in this last day! Also, notice how Fairfield Methodist Primary lost 36% (21 former applicants) as parents re-evaluate their options. This is important for future generations of parents to note with regards to the behaviorial dynamics of parents towards these specific schools. Fortunately, these schools are more of the exception than the norm.
We also noted that certain schools (such as St. Hilda's) have increased their vacancies for Phase 2C during the last few days, indicating that certain parents who have successfully registered in the previous phases changed their minds to register in other schools. A total of 72 schools increased their vacancies, the majority by 1, and the highest drop-out rate was 6 at Tao Nan!.
All the schools we predicted on the 2nd day of Phase 2C that will go into balloting situations (>100% TUR) did go into them, with the exception of Ang Mo Kio Primary and Geylang Methodist. Congratulations to parents who have gotten their children successfully registered today, and good luck to those who face balloting situations in the next few days.